After an impressive road win over Baltimore, the Cincinnati Bengals hope to win their second consecutive game against Buffalo this weekend.
Quarterback Joe Burrow didn’t skip a beat in his return from injury last week, throwing 261 yards and two touchdowns. However, it will take near-perfection mixed in with some luck from this point forward if Burrow and the Bengals want a shot at the postseason.
Entering this AFC matchup, the Bills are 5.5-point home favorites over the Bengals, while the over/under hangs around a healthy 52.5 points.
Keep reading below to see our Bengals vs. Bills predictions, picks, and best bets for this conference showdown.
Bengals vs. Bills Predictions and best bets
- Bengals +5.5: even odds at DraftKings
- Ja’Marr Chase over 86.5 receiving yards: -114 at Caesars
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Bengals +5.5
Remember the last five games of the Bengals’ 2024 campaign?
We might be headed towards another late-season surge from Cincy, as Burrow has returned from injury and the Bengals are fresh off a double-digit win on the road against Baltimore.
Last season, Burrow threw 13 touchdowns and nearly 320 passing yards per game over that final five-game stretch, leading the Bengals to a 5-0 record.
Interestingly enough, Cincy has won its past eight games with Burrow under center: three this season and the last five games in 2024.
The Bengals also looked much more inspiring on the defensive side of the ball, holding the Ravens offense, led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and star running back Derrick Henry, to 14 points.
While I don’t expect Cincy’s defense to copy and paste that effort into this road game against a hyper-efficient Bills offense, I do believe the Burrow-led Bengals can keep this within a one-score game, especially if Burrow airs it out close to 50 times again.
Ja’Marr Chase over 86.5 receiving yards
Burrow wasted no time getting back to his old ways last week, throwing 46 times against Baltimore in a massive 18-point victory.
In that game, Burrow targeted superstar wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase 14 times.
With Buffalo’s offense likely to put up a boatload of points on one of the league’s worst defenses, Burrow will have no choice but to throw just as much as last week.
Chase has also been extremely impressive recently, despite missing Burrow for much of the season, eclipsing this line in six of his past seven games.
Bengals vs. Bills moneyline odds analysis
Why the Bills could win as the favorite
Best odds: -258 at DraftKings
Buffalo has a terrific secondary and holds opposing quarterbacks to the fewest passing yards per game on the fourth-lowest completion percentage.
Cincy’s ground game is one of the worst in the NFL, so if the Bills can stop the pass, the Bengals could struggle to keep up.
On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen leads a highly effective offense, which ranks fifth in points per game, first in rushing yards per game, and fourth in yards per rush.
If last week was an outlier game for this Bengals defense, then Allen and company will score at will on them.
Why the Bengals could win as the underdog
Best odds: +225 at FanDuel
Joe Burrow is back under center for the Bengals, and he has won eight straight games as a starter.
Burrow’s arm talent mixed with the dynamic receiving duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has yielded tremendous results for the offense, particularly during the last third of the 2024 season.
If the Bengals’ defense can hold Buffalo to a reasonable output, similar to what it was able to do against Baltimore last weekend, then they have a shot at winning.
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