CLEVELAND, Ohio – Talking to myself about the Guardians as they head back into action Friday after the All-Star break.
QUESTION: Can Cleveland make the playoffs?
ANSWER: A year ago, the Guardians had a 58-37 record at the All-Star break. That was tops in the American League. This season, they are 46-49.
Q: That’s not an answer.
A: Because the MLB season is 162 games, we often hear comments such as, “It’s not how you start a season, it’s how you finish.”
Q: Meaning what?
A: The Guardians were a mundane 34-32 after the 2024 All-Star break. It added up to a 92-69 record, and they won the Central Division with ease. That’s the advantage to a fast start, or at least a few good months of baseball heading into the heart of the summer.
Q: So there’s no hope?
A: The Guardians are only 4½ games behind Seattle, which has the last Wild Card playoff spot in the American League.
Q: So there is hope?
A: But there also are five other teams in front of the Guardians, also chasing that final Wild Card spot. I wish I could say the Guardians were good at something.
Q: What does that mean?
A: They have good players, and a great one in José Ramírez. But as a team, what are they good at in 2025? … No sarcastic answers allowed.
Q: It sure isn’t hitting.
A: They rank 26th in runs scored out of 30 teams.
Q: What were they last year?
A: They were a respectable 14th.
Q: Pitching?
A: Their team ERA ranks 15th … respectable.
Q: But not good. How about relief pitching?
A: They are 12th in relief. But a year ago, the Guardians ranked No. 1. They had one of the best bullpens in baseball this century. This year, they are slightly above average.
Q: Team defense?
A: There are various analytics sites that rate teams. Most of them have Cleveland at 15 … middle of the pack.
Q: Last year?
A: They were top-three defensively.
Q: Your point?
A: Relief pitching and defense carried Cleveland into the playoffs. The offense was average. Their overall team ERA was 10th, counting starters and relievers. Notice they weren’t bad at anything.
Q: Like hitting this season?
A: Exactly. The Guardians don’t excel in any area. What hurt Cleveland is they gave young players such as Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel, Brayan Rocchio and even Gabriel Arias extended at-bats. None of them produced. They wanted to create “opportunities for young players,” as team president Chris Antonetti explained early in the season. The team did that, but none of them took advantage of it. I think Angel Martinez, Nolan Jones and Kyle Manzardo have shown signs of being productive, but that is it when it comes to the young players.
Q: Can that change?
A: Let’s talk about the Tigers. They are the Guardians of 2025. They started fast and roared into the All-Star break with a 59-38 record.
Q: Tell me something I don’t know.
A: They were 47-50 at the 2024 All-Star break.
Q: But they still made the playoffs, right?
A: They were 55-63 on Aug. 11. Their season seemed hopeless.
Q: So what happened?
A: The Tigers went to a starting rotation of Tarik Skubal and a bunch of relievers starting what are considered “bullpen games.” They finished the season with a 31-13 record. Their bullpen ERA dropped from 4.16 to 2.35 over those last 44 games.
Q: I know, they made the playoffs and battled Cleveland in the postseason, the Guardians winning in the ALDS in five games.
A: They also started to hit after Aug. 11. Before that date, they were batting .234 (.674 OPS). After that date, they hit .249 (.714 OPS). They went from 26th in hitting to 13th.
Q: I keep waiting for a point.
A: The Tigers became a playoff team because they had a great bullpen, a Cy Young winner (Skubal) as a starter and an offense that went from bad to slightly above average. They started to do things well.
Q: That’s what has to happen with the Guardians?
A: Not a team of bullpen/starters like Detroit. If anything, they can rely more on their starting pitchers: Gavin Williams (3.70 ERA), Slade Cecconi (3.44), Logan Allen (4.06), Tanner Bibee (4,29) and Joey Cantillo (4.17). In the minors, they have Parker Messick, Doug Nikhazy and Vince Velasquez as starting options.
Q: What about Luis Ortiz?
A: Who knows? MLB supposedly was to give some type of update during the week of the All-Star Game. So far, nothing about Ortiz and the gambling investigation. The starting pitcher remains on a paid leave of absence.
Q: I’m waiting for a reason to believe …
A: The Guardians are 26th in runs scored. They need offense. Perhaps CJ Kayfus and Chase DeLauter are promoted from Class AAA and can add some punch to the lineup. Maybe they trade for someone, as they did for Lane Thomas a year ago. It’s possible Kyle Manzardo gets hot. He’s second on the team with 15 homers. It won’t be one or two guys; several have to join Ramírez and Steven Kwan as legitimate hitters in the lineup.
Q: Sounds very iffy.
A: It is. But at this time a year ago, the same was true for the Tigers, and they found a way and a team identity. That’s what has to happen here – some young guys have to really start hitting.
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