The Kansas City Chiefs will try to snap their two-game losing streak when they host the AFC’s best team, the Indianapolis Colts, on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have lost their last two games to the Bills and the Broncos by a combined 10 points, but they are 4-1 at home with their only loss coming in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Still, the Colts have the NFL’s best offense and are averaging 32.1 points per game. Check out our Chiefs vs. Colts NFL predictions and best bets.
Chiefs vs Colts NFL predictions and best bets
- Chiefs -3.5: (-102 at FanDuel)
- Under 50.5 points: (-110 at BetMGM)
- Daniel Jones Over 0.5 interceptions thrown: (-120 at BetMGM)
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown: (+140 at FanDuel)
- Jonathan Taylor Under 19.5 rushing attempts: (-110 at BetMGM)
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Colts are 6-1 indoors this season, with their only loss coming against the NFC-best Los Angeles Rams.
Yet, playing outside has been a different challenge for Indy. The Colts are 1-1 in two games on grass against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons with a -1 point differential.
The Chiefs really, really need this game to avoid falling under .500, and the Colts are a tough opponent that has not lost by more than seven points.
But Indy has turned the ball over eight times in the past two games and has nine turnovers in its two losses. That means if you think KC is going to win, expect it to force Indy QB Daniel Jones (7 INTs in 10 games) to throw a pick.
The Colts are 25th in the NFL in passing yards against per game — a function of positive game scripts, mainly. Indy now has CB Sauce Gardner and potentially CB Charvarius Ward patrolling the outside, which means Kansas City TE Travis Kelce is going to need to be huge.
Plus, the Colts have allowed TDs to tight ends in four of their past five games.
Chiefs vs Colts moneyline odds analysis
The Chiefs are a -185 moneyline favorite to win but only a -105 favorite to cover the 3.5-point spread. KC is 0-5 in one-possession games this year, including its 20-17 home loss to the Eagles.
The Chiefs have enjoyed the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium and have a +99 point differential in home games, including double-digit-point wins over the Ravens and Lions.
So even though that hook (-3.5) adds some angst, it is still reasonable to bet the Chiefs to cover if you think they are going to win the game.
Why the Chiefs could win as the favorite
Best odds: -175 at BetMGM
The Chiefs can win if they can follow the Steelers’ formula. Pittsburgh played from ahead against Indianapolis, which forced Indianapolis to throw the ball and lured Jones into mistakes.
Steve Spagnuolo knows how to pressure quarterbacks, despite KC’s 22 sacks this season. KC also knows how to score points, despite its recent offensive struggles — 40 points in its past two games.
Why the Colts could win as the underdog
Best odds: +156 at FanDuel
The Colts can win if they can get RB Jonathan Taylor loose. The NFL Offensive Player of the Year shoo-in is averaging 114 rushing yards per game overall, but 60.5 per game in Indy’s two losses.
For all of their offensive troubles, the Chiefs’ defense has been good this year, especially against the run. KC ranks ninth in rushing yards allowed per game (100.0) and has given up 10 rushing TDs in 10 games.
The Colts’ bread and butter is their running attack with Taylor, Jones and even tight end Tyler Warren. If the Colts get forced out of running the ball, either due to game script or KC’s defense, Jones is unlikely to win them a game at Arrowhead.
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